Oil producers Angola and Nigeria have been favorites despite lingering political and security troubles. The former plans to float a $1 billion Eurobond in the coming months after an opposition challenge to longtime President dos Santos’ 2012 election win was rejected on the grounds that only the full parliament can take action. A new mining regime reduced corporate tax and should sustain 8 percent GDP growth on the first budget deficit in five years. Inflation hovers around double-digits and a sovereign wealth fund was launched to great fanfare with the president’s son in charge. Nigeria’s is also underway with a preliminary $1 billion in assets shifted from the opaque excess crude account, as indigenous operators including the big listed Dangote Group look to enter the industry under recent liberalization. The stock market is a top MSCI frontier performer despite steeper P/E ratios at 13.5, and central bank head Sanusi who has been praised for tackling sector cleanup and inflation will not seek to extend his appointment. Attacks have also worsened from the militant Boko Haram in the north as cooperation founders across the country’s religious split.

Pakistan’s level is below that figure on a heavy $5 billion debt repayment schedule this year as the civilian administration looks to a first post-independence handover in May elections, with perennial candidate Sharif pitted against former cricket superstar Khan appealing to young voters for a new leadership generation. Top economic and financial officials serving on an interim basis have urged the IMF to reconsider a $5-10 billion loan after the previous program lapsed as GDP growth slips to 3 percent on chronic power and security threats. The incumbent PPP may again come out ahead and be forced into a coalition, while returning army head Musharraf still commands a following if he can dismiss power abuse charges. Private sector capital outflows with poor confidence have offset good remittance trends as the business fabric further shreds.

The exchange rate is roughly in line with fundamentals helped by remittance inflows that came to $400 billion for all developing countries in 2012 at an average 9 percent cost according to the World Bank’s migration unit. China, India, the Philippines and Mexico remain the top destinations, while as a share of national income Liberia and Lesotho in Africa are among the leaders. East and South Asia took half the total, with the latter dominated by Bangladesh and Pakistan mainly from workers based in the Persian Gulf. Eastern Europe and Central Asia were one-tenth the total but slipped 5 percent with the persistent Eurozone crisis. US-Mexican movement prevails in Latin America but recent peso appreciation against the dollar has slowed it. The MENA region spiked from the upheaval in Egypt as existing families joined job-seekers abandoning domestic prospects in the mix. Sub-Sahara Africa and Nigeria in particular were flat last year, but the next phase of expatriate mobilization may specifically embrace diaspora bonds where yields can literally be far-reaching.

Serbia may finally be on track for another Fund arrangement after it was recommended for EU membership with an end-April deal on Kosovo relations which will cede police and judicial responsibilities. The stock market rallied on the breakthrough as inflation may also head toward single digits with the central bank on hold after rate hikes over 200 basis points. The FYR-Macedonia, which has a Fund prequalified contingency line, also won political  reform praise as it seeks EU entry and tries to emerge from recession. Albania is also in the queue as it copes with a banking NPL number above 20 percent going into mid-June elections with the opposition Socialists in position to again lead the government after a central coalition party defection.

The currency board has brought low inflation and interest rates but excludes lender of last resort scope. The World Bank’s Doing Business rankings score low on credit access, insolvency, and contract enforcement as Grenada embarks on another debt rescheduling exercise after 2005’s hurricane. The prime minister described the load as a “binding constraint” and the haircut on its $200 million bond is expected to approach the 50 percent for St. Kitts and Nevis in 2012. Commercial negotiators include Franklin Templeton, GMO, and T Rowe Price, who will be hard-pressed to demand repayment with the debt-GDP ratio at 100 percent and unemployment at 30 percent even if their position is united.

Food price relief should aid the region generally and allow for modest interest rate reduction, while diminished energy imports may help BRIC pole India in particular as it copes with a singular current account gap. In Australia mining projects have been shelved and local dollar inflows are off on the reversal although the 3 percent GDP growth forecast is intact on real estate and construction stability. In Japan consumer sentiment at its highest in five years could be further boosted at the margin although nuclear reactor shutdown had created an indefinite power premium. The yen meanwhile last sank against other currencies by the same magnitude two decades ago as a precursor to emerging Asia’s financial meltdown. The G-20 in a summit communique however supported “Abenomics” reflation intent as members behind the scenes expressed exchange rate target reservations when cornered.

One area that received attention by African ministers at the April gathering was the rapid buildup of external commercial debt after previous official relief as current and potential sovereign issuers met with investors in separate sessions as Kenya slated a post-election debut and Zambia another $1 billion in government-linked offerings after last year’s pilot. In response the civil society group AFRODAD released a set of guidelines and principles to serve as a “borrowing charter.” It proclaims that obligations should be sustainable and have political and economic development support, and be transparent and within local contractual and monitoring capacity. A legal framework should be in place for authorization and limitation, and a discrete debt management office must be responsible under parliamentary oversight. The Finance Ministry and central bank can decide the scope but accounts and information should be subject to independent audit. Project financing should observe environmental and human rights, and both donors and private sources are to treat countries with mutual respect which leaves accountability for repayment and citizen approval during the extended exercise, the network advises.

Slovenia has been on the front line after the Cyprus debacle and a failed auction which was later reversed as state banks oversubscribed EUR 500 million in 18-month Treasury bills and the government hired underwriters for an international road show with the investment-grade rating intact. Public debt is 60 percent of GDP, but ailing NLB which failed a previous stress test awaits at least another EUR 1 billion injection to hike the load according to Fitch Ratings. CDS spreads have jumped 50 percent to 350 basis points as new Prime Minister Bratusek, a trained economist, took the helm on a reluctant austerity, recapitalization, and privatization platform. NPLs are 30 percent of portfolios, the OECD estimates and a central asset-disposal arm has been slow to evolve. Since splitting two decades ago from the former Yugoslavia, the scenic Alpine location has spurned foreign direct and portfolio investment opening and allowed plebiscites to overrule official measures. Its stock exchange which is a bottom frontier performer imposed a minimum one-year holding period and the sale of a large grocery chain to a Croatian buyer was refused in 2011 by unions unwilling to experience the jobs and pensions hangover.

Cross-border trade with Colombia should stay strong notwithstanding the outcome of peace negotiations with the rebel FARC up against a November deadline before the start of the next presidential election cycle. Talks failed twice before particularly over the questions of land redistribution and disarmament. The stock market roused slightly with a round of central bank rate cuts but has been a universe laggard on negative manufacturing results. The sovereign was upgraded to BBB on solid growth, inflation and fiscal performance but returning migrants from Spain could pare unemployment progress and oil and mining FDI may not cover as easily the current account gap this year. In the Andes Peru is still the fastest-expanding economy at 5 percent but the exchange there too is stymied by consumer credit and commodity export worries. Dollar reserve requirements were again hiked to fight sol appreciation, and President Humala’s public approval number hovers at 50 percent on maturing local community- resource extraction firm confrontations.

As the update was released recriminations continued over the hurried Cyprus operation which will now require the government to sell gold reserves for its contribution share as the EU extends 10 billion euros. The European parliament criticized the Commission for “appalling communication” while monetary affairs head Rehn admitted to dashed hopes for more gradual adjustment and lack of clarity over secured deposits in the exercise. Lawmakers also questioned the absence of any reference to future negotiations with Turkey over the island’s unification. It has diversified exports to the Gulf but still relies on a “global liquidity glut” to cover the chronic current account deficit and maintain 15 percent domestic credit expansion, according to rater S&P.  FDI offsets less than one-fifth the gap and one-third of that total went into real estate in 2012, and external financing needs remain above the historic average despite the bond boom, the agency finds.